Its been ages since the last blockbuster narrative show.
What does that mean for the medium as an art form?
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One Monday this September, a judge in Baltimore reminded earbud-owning citizens that podcasting was once powerful.
Like I was getting in early on something.
The late David Carrs New YorkTimescolumn on the phenomenon was headlined Breakout Podcast Sets Stage for More.
Many, likeSerial,were ambitious limited-run narrative projects.
Its hard to say that any has.
Its been almost eight years sinceSerialdropped.
But when was the last time a single title was being dissected by everyone you know?
For some in the business, the mediums diminishing ability to drive such moments poses an existential problem.
What does it mean for podcasting as an art form if it rarely inspires widespread critical discussion?
It was in the conversation.
Sometimes, the joke youve surely heard that everyone has a podcast now starts to feel literally true.
Apple Podcasts lists 2.5 million shows; Spotify claims twice as many.
Now, theres a new, ambitious one every day.
Its harder to get to a place where lots of people are listening simultaneously.
The crowded market has made almost everything in the business more difficult.
That congestion has also widened the gap between incumbents and outsiders.
Bigger publishers often have established podcast feeds through which they can advertise new releases; smaller studios typically dont.
Today, if we dont put in a significant marketing budget, its nearly impossible.
The studio recently releasedI Was Never There,a narrative podcast that was internally considered a modest hit.
It was selected for this years Tribeca Festival and cracked the upper echelons of the Apple Podcasts charts.
But, Atkins told me, weve only lost money on this show.
(With ambitious work, that risk isnt just economic but reputational.
But underneath that is a whole other layer of projects that are profitable and have an audience.
Maybe not everyones heard of them, but theyre still successful.
But what happens when podcasting stops producingCrawdads?
I was asking him, Is this all going to end up shaking out like radio?
In other words: a media business that mostly revolves around high-profile talking heads.
But we dont want to be art house, you know?
S-Towndidnt have a big genre push or a big mystery, said Snyder.
It was pretty arty, and it did really, really well.
I do wonder ifS-Towncame out today, would it perform as well?
I dont really know.
Some insiders believe theres probably never going to be anotherSerial-esque moment again.
Its like asking, Why isnt there appointment TV anymore?
The Peak Television analogy is often invoked when executives and producers talk about the teeming podcast market.
And not everybody believes virality and blockbuster status are fundamentally important in the first place.
They might just not be hanging out at bars with your editors.
After all, podcast audiences have continued to grow as a whole.
But these examples are rooted in the fungible power of celebrity.
It means, as Snyder feared, that podcasting is or will become indistinguishable from corporate radio.
Which is only rational, because the reigning, advertising-driven business model doesnt incentivize creative gambles.
Audible, Amazons audiobooks subsidiary, is partnering with prominent podcast creators.
Veterans like Serial Productions Snyder and Pineapple Streets Linsky reminded me that podcasting is still quite young.
Five years ago, there simply werent that many shows, said Snyder.
There also werent many jobs.
And you know, this stuff is really hard to do.
Were all pretty new to it.
Linsky believes its only a matter of time before we see the hits again.
Podcasting, though, isnt lacking in worthy talent right now.
Talent isnt the problem.
The shifting incentive structure around it is.
Perhaps the days of the blockbuster podcast are gone.
There will be plenty to fill your ears.
Just dont expect to hear it at a listening party.
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