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What will the Oscars race look like this year?
There are two answers to that question.
Septembers Telluride Film Festival was an unofficial dry run.
Everyone had to be vaxxed just to show up.
Masks were mandatory inside theaters.
If you squinted, you could almost pretend it was 2019 all over again.
Still, none of us are the same as we were two years ago, and that includes Oscar.
Even awards-season skullduggery has to adapt to this strange new world.
Another way last years bizarre season messed with this years: the calendar itself.
This has made for a slightly more relaxed schedule.
Will they be able to pull off the Globes combo of televised razzle-dazzle and totally bonkers choices?
So much is unknowable.
But, as always, that wont stop us from making early, possibly foolish predictions.
Heres a preliminary rundown of this years field.
Last time around, that meant fun surprises likeUpand, er,Winters Bone.
Who will be the lucky beneficiaries this year?
After the fall festivals, two films have stood out from the pack.
Kenneth BranaghsBelfastcould be described as RomameetsDerry Girls, with all the slightly jarring tonal shifts that implies.
But its also a bona fide crowd-pleaser, full of endearing performances, nostalgic charm, and goodcraic.
If youre the Academy, youre probably praying for an Oscar season full of big mainstream hits.
(More on him in that section.)
And ifGuccidoesnt hit, Scott also has the medieval epicThe Last Duel.
Ridley Scott and swords apotent combination!
How about some underdogs, little movies thatll rely on the kindness of critics circles?
But usually, its the visual fireworks that matter here.
MaybeDenis Villeneuvesspace operatics will spice up their lives?
Or will they prefer to play inWes Andersons intricately constructed Gallic dollhouse?
Can he do it again and make nervous TV presenters have to say the words licorice pizza out loud?
Want someone whos a little more fresh?
(With the caveat thatLin-Manuel MirandasTick, Tick … Boom!hasnt widely screened.)
(If we extend it to directors from outside the Anglosphere, the trend goes back to 2011.
Those three make up the most solid top tier of any race.
Whos jockeying for the other spots?
Mike MillssCmon CmonfindsJoaquin Phoenixembracing his greatest acting challenge yet playing a normal person.
More intriguingly, ifNo Time to Diedoes gangbusters, does MGM giveDaniel Craigan Oscars push as a gold watch?
The reasons for caution are abundant.
(Speaking of familiarity: AfterThe CrownandDiana: The Musical, might people be Spencered out?
Or, like the Beatles, is Diana simply an inexhaustible cultural resource?)
Instead, we have a competitive field in which Stewart is one of many appealing contenders.
What about real-life people?
Ultimately were all just guessing everywhere, but heres where werereallyguessing.
InDog,itsJesse Plemonsas Cumberbatchs put-upon brother, andKodi Smit-McPheeas a local twink.
Simmonsbeing J.K. Simmons inBeing the Ricardos.
But, as I said, this is just a provisional sketch.
But would an Ann Dowd Oscar nom upset the delicate balance of power between her andancient rival Margo Martinale?
Id go with Buckley, but its a hard decision.
(The realRita Morenois also in this one, too, playing a new character.)
