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This year, the Oscars slowly got closer to normal.
But much is still in disarray.
Many categories, including Best Picture, seem like genuine fifty-fifty calls.
(Best Actress might be 20-20-20-20-20.)
Nevertheless, here are my final predictions in every category.
ThenCODA, which barely made a splash when it hit AppleTV+ in August, began its late surge.
ButDogcan boast of its own victories at DGA and BAFTA.
But could a film with only three nominations really win Best Picture?
Im more open to that argument thanI was a few weeks ago.
Just asMoonlightsurely benefitted froman end-of-season momentum boost, its plausible thatCODAonly really took off after nomination voting had ended.
Plus, after two previous nominations, it might just be Smiths time.
The Brits will have to wait their turn.
How did she do it?
The transformation always helps, but Kidman and Stewart did those for their own biopics, too.
I think its best to chalk this up to, lets say …extratextualreasons.
Best Supporting Actor
Ciaran Hinds,BelfastTroy Kotsur,CODAJesse Plemons,The Power of the DogJ.K.
IfCODAdoes bring home Best Picture, the former bit player seizing his moment will be a big reason why.
But one place it should repeat is in Supporting Actress, where triple-threatAriana DeBosehas been storming through the precursors.
Simply put: IfDognotches the win here, its nearly guaranteed to also triumph in the big race.
IfCODAdoes, it promptly becomes the new favorite.
(Best PictureBelfast, anyone?)
(Which, to be fair, did get its own Original Screenplay nom.)
Ryusuke Hamaguchis film was not the flashy Corvette that wows you in the shop window.
But this isnt anotherOctopus Teachersituation.
History hasnt repeated; our past two winners wereToy Story 4andSoul.
Best Film Editing
Dont Look UpDuneKing RichardThe Power of the DogTick, Tick … Boom!
Pop the EGOT button:Dos Oruguitasit is.
Best Original Score
Dont Look UpDuneEncantoParallel MothersThe Power of the Dog
AnotherDune-Dogface-off.
When was the last time you heard bagpipes and Tuvan throat singing on the same soundtrack?
Amid this by-numbers origin story, the boldness of Jenny Beavans ensembles stands out even more.
(Whether that works to the films benefit isanother story.)
Then the animals started singing!
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