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This year, the Oscars are making it easier on us.

But now theyve simplified things.
So that leaves two open slots.
By my accounting, there are six films on the Best Picture bubble.

Some are mainstream Hollywood product, some are indie darlings.
Most of them are widely available on streaming, one of them is only playing tiny arthouses.
Four of them are literary adaptations.

Two are basically biopics.
Which pair the Academy chooses will be a sign of which way the Oscar wind is blowing.
Tick, Tick … Boom!

Where else might it be nominated?Probably: Actor.
Possibly: Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Sound.
What do all those have in common?

The Tragedy of Macbeth
Where else might it be nominated?Probably: Actor.
Possibly: Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography.
Unlikely: Supporting Actress.

Being the Ricardos
Where else might it be nominated?Probably: Actress, Original Screenplay.
Possibly: Actor, Supporting Actor.
Unlikely: Supporting Actress.

performances from Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem.
Reasons to be fearful:Reviews have beencoolerforRicardosthan the other films on the Best Picture bubble.
Nightmare Alley
Where else might it be nominated?Probably: Production Design.
Drive My Car
Where else might it be nominated?Probably: International Film.
Possibly: Director, Adapted Screenplay.
While the Academy has no problem going against critics wishes, influential voices likethe L.A.Times Justin Changdo carry weight.
Nomination voting favors passion over consensus, and a few hundred No.
1 votes from the increasingly international membership might be enough to getDrive My Carin.
The Lost Daughter
Where else might it be nominated?Probably: Actress, Adapted Screenplay.
Possibly: Director, Supporting Actress.
The films become a tastemaker pick, too.
(On the male side, its 18.)
CouldThe Lost Daughterbe the latest in this unfortunate matrilineal trend?